The Challenge: A Shifting Landscape
Since mid-April 2025, advertisers on Meta have encountered a notable downturn in mobile feed ad performance. This isn't an isolated trend but a broader shift characterized by rising costs, declining engagement, and challenges in achieving conversion goals. Understanding these changes is the first step towards navigating them effectively.
Increased CPMs, reduced CTRs, and lower conversion rates are impacting overall ROAS for many.
Decoding the Shift: Key Meta Platform Changes
The performance variations are rooted in a series of significant updates to Meta's advertising ecosystem. These span algorithmic enhancements, targeting policies, new ad features, and evolving tracking methodologies.
🤖The Evolving Algorithm: AI, "Andromeda" & BIM
Meta's ad delivery is increasingly AI-driven. The "Andromeda" infrastructure and "Behavioral Intent Modeling" (BIM) are central to this.
- Andromeda: Sophisticated AI for ad retrieval and ranking, aiming for higher relevance.
- BIM: AI discerns *why* users engage, prioritizing content that offers genuine value and deeper resonance over superficial interactions.
- Impact: Ads failing to provide a quality post-click experience (high bounce, low time-on-page) are penalized. Success hinges on high-quality inputs for the AI.
🎯Targeting Upheaval: No Exclusions, Broad Push
A fundamental policy change was the removal of detailed targeting exclusions (age, gender, interests) by March 2025.
Before
Granular Exclusions
Now
Broad AI-Guided
- Broad is Better (for Meta): Meta advocates for broad targeting, relying on its AI to find relevant users. Advertiser criteria are often "suggestions."
- Impact: Ads reach more diverse audiences, demanding creatives with wider appeal or AI adaptability. Strong CAPI signals are crucial to guide the AI.
✨New Frontiers: Reels, Threads, Advantage+
Meta is actively expanding ad placements and automation tools.
- 📹Video Dominance: Ads testing on Threads; "Reels trending ads" on Instagram. AI video expansion tools for Reels.
- ⚙️Advantage+ Expansion: Automation suite now covers more campaign types (e.g., lead gen). "Value rules" offer nuanced bid adjustments.
- 🔔New Placements: Ads appearing in notification tabs.
- Impact: Vertical video is critical. Agility in creative adaptation is key. Advertisers must learn to work with AI-driven tools.
🔗The Tracking Tightrope: CAPI & Modeled Conversions
Accurate tracking is paramount due to cookie decline and privacy measures (ATT).
Illustrative: A significant portion of reported conversions may be modeled.
- CAPI is Critical: Server-side Conversions API is essential for reliable data. Issues with EMQ, deduplication, or parameters severely hurt performance.
- Modeled Conversions: Meta uses statistical modeling to estimate conversions due to signal loss. Understanding this is vital for decision-making.
- Impact: Flawed CAPI data cripples AI optimization. Advertisers need to reconcile Meta's data with first-party sources.
🗓️Key Meta Ad Platform Changes (Early-Mid 2025) - Summary
The following table, adapted from the research, summarizes key platform changes and their potential impact on mobile feed ads.
| Change/Update | Approx. Date | Key Details | Potential Impact on Mobile Feed Ads |
|---|---|---|---|
| "Andromeda" Algorithm & AI Enhancements | Ongoing 2025 | New ad retrieval/ranking engine (ML/AI). Behavioral Intent Modeling (BIM) understands user engagement intent. Prioritizes value. | Increased importance of high-quality, engaging mobile creative; potential for volatility; less direct control. |
| Removal of Detailed Targeting Exclusions | By Mar 2025 | No exclusions by age, gender, interests. Meta pushes broad targeting, AI finds users. | Ads reach broader audiences. Need for wider appeal creative. Strong CAPI signals vital. |
| Prioritization of Video & New Formats | Ongoing 2025 | Reels trending ads, AI video expansion for FB Reels, video ads on Threads. | Mobile feeds more video-dominant. Need for vertical video. New placement opportunities. |
| Expansion of Advantage+ Automation | Ongoing 2025 | Advantage+ for lead gen, merging manual sales to Advantage+ Sales Campaigns. Simpler structures favored. | Increased push to AI-managed campaigns. Focus on quality inputs (creative, CAPI). |
| Introduction of "Value rules" | May 2025 | Bid adjustments for specific audiences (age, gender, location, OS). | Nuanced guidance to AI bidding. Focus budget on higher-value segments. |
| Emphasis on CAPI & Server-Side Tracking | Ongoing 2025 | Critical due to signal loss. CAPI issues (EMQ, deduplication) hurt performance. | Accurate CAPI is non-negotiable for AI optimization. Poor CAPI = poor performance. |
| Increased Reliance on Modeled Conversions | Ongoing 2025 | Statistical modeling for conversions. Incremental Attribution introduced. | Understand probabilistic nature of data. Use blended metrics. |
| New Ad Placements (e.g., Notification Tab) | Testing Q2 2025 | Ads in Facebook/Instagram notification tabs. | New touchpoints, but risk of user fatigue. Indirect impact on mobile feed. |
Community Pulse: What Advertisers Are Experiencing
The performance shifts aren't just theoretical. Advertisers widely report similar challenges, indicating systemic factors at play.
📉The Numbers Don't Lie: CPM Spikes & CTR Drops
Many advertisers saw sudden performance crashes around late March-April 2025.
Illustrative: CPMs reported to jump significantly (e.g., $14 to $21).
Illustrative: CTRs also reported to fall (e.g., 1.5% to 0.8%).
This often led to reduced traffic and worsened website conversion rates, even with no changes to advertiser sites, suggesting issues with traffic quality or intent.
🤔Attribution & Tracking Woes
Experienced advertisers speculate that changes in Meta's event prioritization and attribution could be key factors.
Commonly Cited Issues:
- "Bad tracking signals": Missing crucial parameters (e.g., `campaign_id`, `ad_id`) or delayed event firing.
- Poor CAPI Event Match Quality (EMQ) scores.
- Incorrect event deduplication.
- Flawed event prioritization in Aggregated Event Measurement.
If Meta's AI receives flawed or misinterpreted data, its optimization capabilities are severely hampered, impacting ad delivery and performance.
🎯The "Dead Pockets" Phenomenon & Audience Saturation
A frustrating issue where new campaigns perform well initially by tapping a "fresh pocket" of receptive users, but then Meta's algorithm over-targets this segment until performance dwindles (conversions drop, CPMs rise) due to saturation and ad fatigue.
🚀 Fresh Pocket
Initial good performance
✅
🎯 Over-Farmed
Performance dwindles
📉
🔄 Needs Reset
New creative/audience tweak
💡
This suggests Meta's AI might sometimes over-exploit successful segments rather than sufficiently exploring new ones. Regular interventions (creative refresh, audience tweaks, campaign duplication) may be needed to nudge the AI out of these ruts, especially for always-on mobile feed campaigns.
The Strategic Blueprint: Charting a Course to Recovery
Addressing the decline requires a systematic, multi-pronged approach. This blueprint outlines foundational audits, creative revamps, leveraging new tools, and robust data analysis.
🛠️Foundation: CAPI & Campaign Structure
CAPI Audit Essentials:
- Verify Event Match Quality (EMQ) - Aim for "Good" or "Great".
- Ensure correct Event Deduplication.
- Confirm essential parameters (`campaign_id`, `ad_id`, `action_source`) are passed.
- Review Aggregated Event Measurement (AEM) prioritization.
Campaign Structure:
- Simplify & Consolidate ad sets for more data per entity.
- Align with Advantage+ principles (broader inputs, AI control).
- Monitor "Campaign Score" if available.
🎨Creative is King: Mobile-First & Video
Mobile feeds demand attention-grabbing, value-driven content.
Illustrative: Prioritize vertical video for mobile.
- Invest in high-quality, native vertical videos (9:16).
- Capture attention in first 3 seconds; use captions.
- Tell stories, offer solutions. Ensure good post-click experience.
- A/B test formats, messaging, and deeper user intent.
🚀Leveraging New Tools
Strategically adopt Meta's evolving toolkit.
- Advantage+ Suite: Use Campaign Budget (ACB) and Placements. Feed with high-quality creative & CAPI data.
- "Value Rules": Adjust bids for specific valuable audience segments (age, gender, location, OS) to guide AI. Requires good internal data.
- AI Ad Tools: Explore generative AI tools for creative adaptation (with careful review).
👥Audience Reimagined
With no exclusions, strategy shifts to guiding AI with quality signals.
High-Value Seed Audience (e.g., LTV list)
⬇️Strong Lookalike Audience
⬇️Broad AI-Driven Targeting
- Embrace broader targeting if CAPI signals are strong.
- Use high-quality Lookalikes from best customer lists.
- Refine Custom Audiences for retargeting high-intent actions.
📊Data-Driven Navigation
Interpret modeled data wisely and monitor continuously.
(Total Revenue / Total Ad Spend)
- Treat Meta's numbers directionally; expect discrepancies.
- Supplement with first-party data & post-purchase surveys.
- Explore Incremental Attribution features.
- Monitor KPIs in real-time; make agile, thoughtful adjustments.
💡Troubleshooting Tip
Systematically diagnose issues using a checklist. The full checklist is detailed in the research report (Table 2), covering CAPI, creative, audience, campaign structure, and metrics analysis.
View Key Checklist Areas🔍Troubleshooting Checklist Highlights for Mobile Feed Decline
Key areas to investigate based on the research report's detailed checklist (Table 2).
| Area of Concern | Specific Check/Action Example | Key Question Example |
|---|---|---|
| Tracking & CAPI Integrity | Verify CAPI setup (EMQ, deduplication, essential parameters like `campaign_id`, `ad_id`). | Is EMQ score high? Are events deduplicating correctly? |
| Mobile Creative Relevance & Quality | Audit creatives for mobile-first design. Test new vertical videos. | Are creatives truly mobile-first (vertical, attention-grabbing)? |
| Audience & Targeting Strategy | Review audience definitions. Test broader audiences with strong Lookalikes. | Are audiences overly narrow? Are Lookalikes based on best customers? |
| Campaign Structure & Automation | Simplify campaign structures. Use Advantage+ features strategically. | Is the campaign structure too complex for Meta's AI? |
| Performance Metrics & Analysis | Analyze trends in CPM, CTR, Conversion Rate specifically for mobile feed. Compare with first-party data. | Where is the drop-off in the funnel? What's the discrepancy with backend sales? |
Moving Forward: Sustaining Success in a Dynamic World
The Meta ad landscape is rapidly evolving. Long-term success requires adaptability, continuous learning, and a nuanced understanding of how to collaborate with Meta's AI.
🔑Key Takeaways
- AI Dominance is Norm: Success depends on quality inputs for Meta's AI.
- Robust CAPI is Indispensable: Accurate first-party data via CAPI is critical.
- Targeting is Broader, AI-Guided: Manual hyper-targeting is out; AI guidance is in.
- Mobile-First, Quality Creative: Engaging, value-driven content (especially video) is paramount.
- Measurement is Evolving: Adapt to modeled data and focus on overall business impact.
🔄The Agile Advertiser: Continuous Learning Cycle
Embrace change through a commitment to agility.